What does 1 Samuel 6:9 mean?
ESV: and watch. If it goes up on the way to its own land, to Beth-shemesh, then it is he who has done us this great harm, but if not, then we shall know that it is not his hand that struck us; it happened to us by coincidence."
NIV: but keep watching it. If it goes up to its own territory, toward Beth Shemesh, then the Lord has brought this great disaster on us. But if it does not, then we will know that it was not his hand that struck us but that it happened to us by chance."
NASB: But watch: if it goes up by the way of its own territory to Beth-shemesh, then He has done this great evil to us. But if not, then we will know that it was not His hand that struck us; it happened to us by chance.'
CSB: Then watch: If it goes up the road to its homeland toward Beth-shemesh, it is the Lord who has made this terrible trouble for us. However, if it doesn’t, we will know that it was not his hand that punished us—it was just something that happened to us by chance."
NLT: If they cross the border of our land and go to Beth-shemesh, we will know it was the Lord who brought this great disaster upon us. If they don’t, we will know it was not his hand that caused the plague. It came simply by chance.'
KJV: And see, if it goeth up by the way of his own coast to Bethshemesh, then he hath done us this great evil: but if not, then we shall know that it is not his hand that smote us: it was a chance that happened to us.
NKJV: And watch: if it goes up the road to its own territory, to Beth Shemesh, then He has done us this great evil. But if not, then we shall know that it is not His hand that struck us—it happened to us by chance.”
Verse Commentary:
The priests and diviners of the Philistines have recommended the best way to appease Israel's angry God. They are also determined to confirm whether He is the one who caused the plague which struck their nation (1 Samuel 5:6–12; 6:1–8). Apparently, some Philistines were not convinced their suffering was punishment for capturing the ark of the Lord (Exodus 25:10–16). Perhaps they had never seen any god demonstrate actual power and control over nature in such a way.

The priests have recommended the leaders of the Philistines place the ark on a new cart, along with a guilt offering to Israel's God. They should then harness the cart to two untrained milk cows who have been separated from their calves (1 Samuel 6:7–8).

Now they tell the leaders to simply let the cows go and then watch to see what happens. The idea seems to be that if the Lord of the Israelites was powerful enough to bring the "great harm" against them because of the ark, He will be powerful enough to cause the milk cows to head toward the nearby town of Beth-shemesh, just across the Israelite border. If, instead, the cows turn and head toward their own home and their calves, as expected, it was all just a coincidence. Nature and common sense would predict the cows will go home.

Beth-shemesh was located west of Jerusalem and is today identified with Tel er-Rumeilah. Excavations of the site have revealed artifacts from the time of Samuel that show Philistine influence, which fits with its precarious spot inside Israelite territory but near to the Philistine town of Timnah (Judges 14:1).
Verse Context:
First Samuel 6:1–18 describes the Philistine plan to send the ark of the Lord back to Israel. They hope to stop the plague and panic with which God d afflicted them (1 Samuel 5). At the advice of their priests and diviners, the Philistines place the ark and a guilt offering of five golden mice and five golden tumors on a new cart pulled by two milk cows. The cows head straight for the Israelite town of Beth-shemesh. There, the rejoicing people offer the cows as a burnt offering to the Lord. The Levites living in the town place the ark and the golden images on a large rock. The lords of the Philistines see the sacrifice and return to Ekron.
Chapter Summary:
The Philistine religious leaders advise the five lords of the Philistines to send the ark of the Lord back to Israel with a guilt offering to stop the plague of tumors ravishing their land (1 Samuel 5:6–12). The Philistines place the ark along with five golden mice (or five golden tumors and five golden mice) on a new cart hitched to two untrained milk cows whose calves are shut up at home. The cows head straight for the Israelite border town of Beth-shemesh. There, the people rejoice and offer the cows before the ark as a burnt offering to the Lord. The Lord kills seventy men of the town because the people looked at the ark. Frightened, the people send to Kiriath-jearim and ask them to take the ark.
Chapter Context:
First Samuel 6 finds most of the Philistines convinced that the plague and panic (1 Samuel 5:6–12) are from the Lord. They place the ark of the Lord and a guilt offering of golden mice on a cart pulled by two milk cows. The cows pull the ark straight to the Israelite town of Beth-shemesh, where the rejoicing people offer the cows as a burnt offering to the Lord before the ark. The Lord kills seventy men of the town for looking at (or in) the ark. The people of Beth-shemesh send word to those in another town to take the ark away.
Book Summary:
First Samuel introduces the key figures who led Israel after the era of the judges. The books of 1 and 2 Samuel were originally part of a single text, split in certain translations shortly before the birth of Christ. Some of the Bible’s most famous characters are depicted in this book. These including the prophet Samuel, Israel’s first king, Saul, her greatest king, David, and other famous names such as Goliath and Jonathan. By the end of this book, Saul has fallen; the book of 2 Samuel begins with David’s ascension to the throne.
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