What does 2 Samuel 24:10 mean?
ESV: But David 's heart struck him after he had numbered the people. And David said to the Lord, "I have sinned greatly in what I have done. But now, O Lord, please take away the iniquity of your servant, for I have done very foolishly."
NIV: David was conscience-stricken after he had counted the fighting men, and he said to the Lord, "I have sinned greatly in what I have done. Now, Lord, I beg you, take away the guilt of your servant. I have done a very foolish thing."
NASB: Now David’s heart troubled him after he had counted the people. So David said to the Lord, 'I have sinned greatly in what I have done. But now, Lord, please overlook the guilt of Your servant, for I have acted very foolishly.'
CSB: David’s conscience troubled him after he had taken a census of the troops. He said to the Lord, "I have sinned greatly in what I’ve done. Now, Lord, because I’ve been very foolish, please take away your servant’s guilt."
NLT: But after he had taken the census, David’s conscience began to bother him. And he said to the Lord, 'I have sinned greatly by taking this census. Please forgive my guilt, Lord, for doing this foolish thing.'
KJV: And David's heart smote him after that he had numbered the people. And David said unto the Lord, I have sinned greatly in that I have done: and now, I beseech thee, O Lord, take away the iniquity of thy servant; for I have done very foolishly.
NKJV: And David’s heart condemned him after he had numbered the people. So David said to the Lord, “I have sinned greatly in what I have done; but now, I pray, O Lord, take away the iniquity of Your servant, for I have done very foolishly.”
Verse Commentary:
The text doesn't say what Israel has done, simply saying that God is mad. He wants to punish the nation. For some reason, His plan involves inciting David to sin and then making the punishment kingdom-wide. God allows Satan to incite David to take a census of the fighting men in all Israel. Joab and the generals object, but David's order stands (2 Samuel 24:1–4; 1 Chronicles 21:1).

Once Joab arrives with the results of the census, David realizes his sin. David claims he has acted "foolishly." Theologically, to be foolish is to deny God (Psalm 14:1). This may be evidence that David forgot God is Israel's protector, and he commanded the census to make sure his army was strong enough to protect the nation against enemies. If that's the case, the psalms David wrote to extol God's provision and protection are all the sweeter (2 Samuel 22:2—23:7).

On the other hand, "foolish" could mean sinful and unwise.

Scholars also posit that the census was wrong because David did it for tax purposes. He may have wanted to collect money to appease God for whatever sin the Israelites had committed. Or, he may have wanted to accumulate supplies for the temple construction (Exodus 30:11–16). If either is the case, David did so without God's permission.

This is the second of two major sins David commits, and they both follow the same pattern. David wants something sinful and implicates a reluctant Joab (2 Samuel 11:2–21). God allows David to realize the extent of his sin and repent (2 Samuel 12:13). God punishes David in a way that also hurts those around him. In the case of David's sin against Bathsheba and Uriah, God orchestrated the deaths of three of his sons and allowed one to start a civil war. In the case of the census, thousands of Israelite men die of a plague (2 Samuel 24:15). God is gracious, but He also disciplines those He loves.

First Chronicles 21 has another statement before this verse: "But God was displeased with this thing, and he struck Israel." It doesn't mean that God struck Israel before David repented. It's a summary statement that covers 1 Chronicles 21:8–17 (2 Samuel 24:10–17).
Verse Context:
Second Samuel 24:10–14 (1 Chronicles 21:7–13) records David realizing he's made a terrible mistake. God allowed Satan to tempt David into taking a census. Once it's complete, David recognizes and repents from his sin (2 Samuel 24:1–9). God gives David a choice of punishments; David would rather a famine or pestilence from God than war against men. Thousands of men die in a three-day plague, but God has mercy on Jerusalem (2 Samuel 24:15–17).
Chapter Summary:
Second Samuel 24 (1 Chronicles 21) is the final story in the epilogue to 1 and 2 Samuel. God is angry with Israel and incites David to take a census. When it's finished, David accepts blame, and God punishes Israel with a plague. The plague's progress stops at a threshing floor just short of Jerusalem. David buys the land and offers a sacrifice. The land will later house the temple. In the chiasm—the mirror arrangement—epilogue of 1 and 2 Samuel, this story is partnered with God's punishment of Saul's family for their sin against the Gibeonites (2 Samuel 21:1–14).
Chapter Context:
Second Samuel 24 (1 Chronicles 21) marks the end of the epilogue of 1 and 2 Samuel. Second Samuel 21—24 is a mirrored pattern showing how God's blessings on Israel are dependent on their obedience. Here, God is angry with Israel and incites David. The nation is disciplined by a deadly plague. In 2 Samuel 24, the story shows that God disciplines Israel's disobedience. In 1 Chronicles 21, the focus is on how David got the land for the temple.
Book Summary:
Second Samuel continues the story of David, who will become king over Judah. The other tribes of Israel are resistant, eventually sparking a civil war. David wins and makes Jerusalem his capital. Early success is followed by moral failure and controversy in David's house. The book of 1 Kings will begin by detailing David's decline and death.
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